U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Hits 10‑Year Low on Future Outlook, Recession Fears Mount

According to a report released Tuesday by the U.S. Conference Board, the consumer confidence index fell further in March, pushing views on the future economic outlook to their lowest level in 10 years.

The report showed that the monthly confidence index for current conditions stood at 92.9, down 7.2 points from the previous month and marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of around 93.5, but the actual figure came in below that.

More concerning is the expectations index, which dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years. That is well below 80, the threshold widely viewed as signaling a potential recession. The index reflects consumers’ expectations for income, business conditions, and the job market.

Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board, said, “The optimism about future income that had remained strong in recent months has almost disappeared, indicating that concerns about the economy and the labor market are now spilling over into how people assess their own situations.”

The survey results were released against a backdrop of heightened market volatility and worrying readings from other consumer sentiment surveys, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on U.S. imports. The decline in confidence was particularly pronounced among consumers aged 55 and older, but the weakening of sentiment was evident across all income groups.

Views on the stock market also deteriorated sharply: only 37.4% of respondents now expect share prices to rise over the next year, a drop of 10 percentage points from February. This marks the first shift to a negative outlook since the end of 2023.

Expectations for the labor market worsened as well. The share of respondents who expect more jobs to be available fell to 16.7%, while those who anticipate fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. In February, those figures were 18.8% and 26.6%, respectively.