Jul 18, 2024
Trump Nearly Killed: What About Trump-Related Stocks?
Sungwoo Bae
The 1mm Miracle
The July 13 rally in Pennsylvania was a key campaign event for Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
The rally took place just before the Republican National Convention, and Trump was scheduled to announce his running mate at the event.
"We have to take back our country"
In the middle of a speech on the U.S. economy and foreign policy, just as Trump declared that America had to be taken back, multiple gunshots rang out.
Immediately after the shots, Trump clutched his ear, grazed by a bullet, and took cover below the stage.
After the incident, Trump exited the stage with Secret Service agents. Blood was visible on his ear as he briefly raised a fist toward the crowd.
According to a 3D graphic released by Point Consciousness, the bullet narrowly grazed Trump’s ear just after he turned his head. Had he not turned, the bullet would likely have gone straight through his head.
Crooks, the man who opened fire at Trump—who is he?
The shooter who opened fire at Trump was Thomas Matthew Crooks, a young man from Bethel Park.
Born in 2003, he graduated from Bethel Park High School in 2022 and earned an engineering degree from CCAC in May 2024, after which he worked in the kitchen of a local nursing home. According to the BBC, Crooks was registered as a Republican with conservative leanings, and records show he donated $15 in 2021 to ActBlue, a progressive campaign group.
Some former classmates described him as a loner, raising the possibility that severe social isolation may have driven him to an extreme act. However, he had not been known to strongly support either side politically, making it hard to clearly connect his chosen method of expression—firing at Trump—with any particular ideology.
Police and the FBI are currently investigating his motives based on his phone records and other witness statements.
The weapon used in the attack was an AR rifle owned by his father, and the ammunition and ladder used in the crime were found to have been purchased on the day of the rally.
As a result of the shooting, Corey Comperatore, a fire chief in his 50s, was killed while protecting his family, and two others were injured — both are reported to be in stable condition.
Crusius was shot and killed on the spot by a Secret Service sniper.
Trump’s policy leanings, and stocks linked to Trump
Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee, and his running mate is Senator J.D. Vance, who once stood at odds with Trump but now backs him as a hardline conservative.
So what kind of policy stance does the conservative-leaning Trump actually have? We can see it by looking back at what he did in office.
- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%
- Rollbacks to the Dodd–Frank Act – eased regulations on banks and other financial institutions
- United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) – protected U.S. manufacturing and agriculture
- Attempted repeal of the Clean Power Plan – focused on improving power plant efficiency
- Changes to Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rules – loosened regulations on agriculture and industry
- Revisions to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) – streamlined environmental review procedures
- Changes to the Endangered Species Act (ESA) – relaxed requirements for protecting listed species and their habitats
- Approval of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines – promoted energy infrastructure development
- Reform of the H-1B visa program – restricted inflows of foreign workers to protect U.S. jobs
- Opposition to Biden’s cryptocurrency regulations – supported Bitcoin mining and opposed the Biden administration’s proposed taxes on mining-related power usage
- Tariffs on China & pressure on Huawei, ZTE, TikTok, and WeChat – sought to curb China’s rise
- Higher defense spending, expanded arms sales, and demands for greater burden-sharing – boosted the defense industry
Overall, he has aggressively tried to contain China while taking a business-friendly stance, with a clear focus on energy, defense, and finance. Crypto is a bonus on top of that.
Roundup of Trump-linked stocks – energy, defense, and finance
There is, in fact, one Trump-linked stock that is already extremely well known: DJT.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is a U.S. media and technology company owned by Donald Trump, and with his name in the ticker, it is practically impossible not to notice it.
The stock had already screamed “Trump trade,” rising nearly 50% heading into the debate. But what we want to know today is which companies could benefit if Trump actually wins. We looked into which names are being cited as Trump-linked or Trump-beneficiary stocks, and how they were affected by his policies during his previous term.
#1. Energy
ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are
These are energy companies that are expected to benefit if Trump is elected.
During his previous term, Trump implemented the following energy-related policies.
- Approved the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines (January 24, 2017)
- Repealed the Clean Power Plan (March 28, 2017)
- Allowed drilling in ANWR (December 22, 2017)
- Eased regulations on offshore drilling (January 4, 2018)
#2. Defense
Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are
defense companies that are expected to benefit if Trump is elected.
During his previous term, Trump implemented the following defense-related policies.
- Arms sales deal with Saudi Arabia (May 20, 2017)
- Increased the 2018 defense budget (December 12, 2017)
- Increased the 2019 defense budget (August 13, 2018)
#3. Financials
Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) are
financial companies that are expected to benefit if Trump is elected.
During his previous term, Trump implemented the following financial-sector policies.
- Eased regulations on the FSOC (Financial Stability Oversight Council) (November 17, 2017)
- Eased regulations under the Fair Lending Act (March 1, 2018)
- Rolled back parts of the Dodd-Frank Act (May 24, 2018)
Don’t just blindly buy “Trump plays”: what to watch out for
The energy sector actually tended to rise before the election, and while defense and financials also went up, they were more affected by macroeconomic conditions. Which makes sense.
If we assume that these “Trump plays” benefit from his policies and rhetoric, then all of these sectors should show a strong correlation with Trump’s time in office.
In reality, however, things look quite different from that assumption.
The correlations between sectors that benefit during a Trump term are:
- Correlation between energy and defense sectors: -0.33
- Correlation between defense and financial sectors: 0.34
- Correlation between financial and energy sectors: 0.35
They show quite low, or even negative, correlations.
This means that even if certain companies or sectors benefit from policy, those gains can be offset by a variety of other factors that affect their value.
This is where the key question arises: Are we scooping up stocks on the assumption that Trump’s victory is already a done deal?
In practice, it may not be efficient to pay up now for stocks whose upside after the election could turn out to be limited.
The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Support for Trump is rooted in the possibility that he will bolster U.S. energy dominance and growth in the technology sector. We should remember and keep in mind that in 2019 he said of cryptocurrencies that they are “not money,” that their value is highly volatile, and that their foundations are uncertain.
We are investors; Trump is a politician.
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