The Cure-All for Every Supply Shortage

The most talked-about items in short supply lately are memory semiconductors, represented by DRAM and NAND. Memory chips are one of the key components required for AI data centers, and after OpenAI detected bottlenecks last October and effectively locked up idle supply through forward purchasing, memory prices pulled off the feat of doubling in just one quarter.

According to Counterpoint, the price increases driven by memory shortages are expected to continue into the second quarter of this year. Some observers believe that many consumer electronics manufacturers that fail to secure memory supply will delay product launches, and quite a few may shut down their businesses altogether. Micron, one of the three major memory manufacturers, has completely exited the consumer segment.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of eggs (per dozen), which hit an all-time high of $6.23 a year ago, fell about 60% from that peak as of last month, returning to its 2022 level. The basic principle of the commodity market that the blogger highlights is:

Of course, with the advent of HBM, some argue that "the very nature of memory semiconductors has shifted from a generic commodity to a specialized, custom product". But if I had to put in my two cents, I would bet that memory prices a year from now will be lower than they are today.